Move the sliders. See the business case rebuild itself.
Every input below is an assumption you control. Defaults reflect published Network Rail delay-cost figures and the consortium's conservative central case. Outputs update instantly across delay minutes recovered, latent capacity unlocked, and annualised £ savings.
Assumptions
Network Rail TRUST-attributed annual delay minutes.
Swedish & UIC research: 20–40% of cascading delay sits below the 3-minute reporting threshold.
Share of newly-visible δᵢ delay attributable to root-cause fixes.
Schedule 8 / blended franchise compensation per delay-minute.
Total annual train movements across the modelled estate.
Phase 3 target: 1–3% network-wide capacity recovery from ITPS feedback.
Blended track-access charge + farebox contribution per additional path.
Investment vs returns · Phases 1 → 3
Benefits ramp as the graph scales: Phase 1 validates at Wimbledon (~3% of national footprint), Phase 2 averages ~14% over the regional roll-out, Phase 3 averages ~62% during the year of national integration before reaching steady state.
Wimbledon PoV · scope validation
Regional scale-out · partial benefit ramp
National integration · full benefit by year-end
Which assumptions actually move the needle?
Tornado plot — the longest bars are the dials worth defending in due diligence. Switch metric to see how the driver mix changes between delay recovery, capacity, and £ savings.
What moves annual £ savings?
Each bar = effect of swinging that single input ±25% from its current value, holding every other dial constant. Sorted by impact.
Even on conservative dials, Phase 3 pays back inside a year.
Drop sub-threshold to 20%, recovery to 15%, and capacity gain to 1.0% — the model still produces a multi-£10m annual benefit and recovers the full £11.7m investment well within steady-state Year 4. The downside scenario isn't “no benefit” — it's “merely transformational”.